Q: Can the Eagles still earn the top seed in the NFC?I don't feel so good.
A: Yes, but it's a longshot. There are two scenarios. The first one requires four things to happen:
1. Eagles beat Vikings and Cowboys.
2. Saints lose to Bucs in Week 17.
3. Falcons lose to Panthers in Week 17.
4. Bears lose to Packers in Week 17.
In this scenario, the Eagles and Falcons both finish at 12-4, and the Eagles get the tiebreak since they beat Atlanta earlier this season.
The second scenario plays out if the Bears beat the Packers and create a three-way tie of 12-4 teams (Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia). If that happens, the Eagles would FIRST need three things to happen:
1. Eagles beat Vikings and Cowboys.
2. Saints lose to Bucs in Week 17.
3. Falcons lose to Panthers in Week 17.
However, even if those three things happen, the Eagles ARE NOT guaranteed the top spot.
The head-to-head tiebreak would be irrelevant because the Falcons and Bears didn't play each other. Conference win-loss percentage is the next step, but all three teams would be 9-3 against the NFC.
Next up would be win-loss percentage in common games, but there needs to be a minimum of four common games between the three teams, which there are not.
And so it would come down to strength of victory - a tiebreak that cannot yet be determined because Week 17 has to play out. In other words, you'd take the combined win-loss records of the teams that the Eagles, Bears and Falcons each beat this season. The team with lowest opponents' win-percentage gets bounced, and the other two teams run through the set of tiebreakers again.
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Basically, you want to root for teams the Eagles have beaten this season to win in Week 17. And you want to root for teams the Bears and Falcons have beaten this season to lose in Week 17.
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It's important to note here that if the Saints, Falcons, Eagles and Bears all finish 12-4, the Saints get the one-seed, the Bears get the two-seed, the Eagles get the three-seed and the Falcons get the fifth-seed (as the top wild card).
Now to the simple scenarios that my feeble human mind can wrap it's head around. There is but one scenario for the Eagles to get the #2 seed. Eagles beat Minnesota and Dallas, and Green Bay beats Chicago in Week 17. If none of these scenarios happen and the Eagles do not get a bye, they will be a #3 seed where they will face either Green Bay, New York Giants, or Tampa Bay. Want another headache? Here are the Green Bay, New York, and Tampa Bay scenarios!
Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:Want to avoid these feelings of nausea, headaches, and weakness? Support a 2010 AFC team.
1) GB win
2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
3) NYG loss + TB loss
NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie
Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss
Not happening. Sorry you wasted your time writing this out.
ReplyDeleteI salute you, Mr. State The Obvious After The Fact!
ReplyDeleteAs I do you, Mr. Foolishly Optimistic Reid is Coach of the Year.
ReplyDeleteDo I think he should be Coach of the year? For what he has done with Vick, absolutely yes.
ReplyDeleteDo I think he will be Coach of the Year? Absolutely not. The award is generally given to the coach who turns a team around from really bad to playoff contender, not for improving an individual or keeping a level of consistency at a high level. Congrats, Todd Haley!