Further Dispelling The Myth That Ryan Howard Is The Phillies NLCS "Goat"

(Originally posted at The Good Phight)

I understand this post is going to be preaching to the choir for the most part, but the insanity of some reactions by both fans and media have compelled me to break down Ryan Howard's post-season performance. He is not the reason they lost, and if you do think he is, then you have not seen any of the numbers of the post-season. People will be quick to point to RBIs as the reason Howard is the goat, because, what kind of clean-up hitter has 0 RBIs in a 6 game post-season series? But if you know anything about RBIs, you know that it is a meaningless stat in judging whether or not a player is good or not.

If one is going to determine how good a player performed in a post-season series, the last place you should look is RBIs (something that will be painfully obvious in a short while, if it isn't already). Let's look at the important offensive percentages for each the Phillies in the 2010 NLCS, excluding pitchers. Important: I know the sample size is a 6-game series, but I am not using this to say that Player X is better/more valuable than Player Y overall. The sole purpose of this post is to dispel the myth that Ryan Howard's $125MM bat "disappeared" during the NLCS.

While not the best stat there is, batting average is at least better than RBIs, so we'll start with this one and move on to more complex and more telling metrics, such as OPS, as we go on.

Batting average in the 2010 NLCS

Ryan Howard: .318
Jimmy Rollins: .261
Placido Polanco: .250
Jayson Werth: .222
Phillies Team Average: .216
Raul Ibanez: .211
Sahne Victorino: .208
Chase Utley: .182
Ben Francisco: .167
Carlos Ruiz: .167

On-Base Percentage in the 2010 NLCS

Ryan Howard: .400
Jayson Werth: .375
Placido Polanco: .360
Chase Utley: .333
Jimmy Rollins: .320
Carlos Ruiz: .318
Phillies Team Average: .314
Sahen Victorino: .296
Raul Ibanez: .250
Ben Francisco: .167

Slugging percentage

Jayson Werth: .611
Ryan Howard: .500
Placido Polanco: .350
Carlos Ruiz: .333
Phillies Team Average: .321
Jimmy Rollins: .304
Raul Ibanez: .263
Shane Victorino: .250
Chase Utley: .227
Ben Francisco: .167

OPS

Jayson Werth: .986
Ryan Howard: .900
Placido Polanco: .710
Carlos Ruiz: .652
Phillies Team Average: .635
Jimmy Rollins: .624
Chase Ultey: .561
Shane Victorino: .546
Raul Ibanez: .513
Ben Francisco: .333

The fact that people want to lay the blame on someone who led the team in on-base percentage, was 2nd in number of bases/AB, and 2nd in OPS is completely senseless. People want to find a goat, and because Ryan Howard got the big contract extension, he is the easy target when he is not hitting grand slams in every at-bat. Now, these more telling numbers aside, people will still point to the RBIs as to why Howard was not "clutch," and why he "lost his bat in the playoffs," and on and so forth. So why the discrepancy? Here is where it comes from.

Number of doubles hit in the NLCS

Ryan Howard: 4
Placido Polanco: 2
Raul Ibanez: 1
Shane Victorino: 1
Chase Utley: 1
Jimmy Rollins: 1
Jayson Werth: 1
Everyone else: 0

Ryan Howard hit 4 doubles in the NLCS and still has 0 RBIs. He was mashing the ball with the best of them in this series and yet he still had 0 RBIs. The factors that influenced that are all things beyond Ryan Howard's control. He has no control over the number of people on base and where they are located each AB. Nor does he have any control over whether or not any runner on 1st can score with the double. He can't just put a turbo boost into Jimmy Rollins to make him run like The Flash so he can beat the throw from Edgar Renteria to give the Phillies more runs in Game 6 of the NLCS. Ryan Howard had more hits than any Phillie in the NLCS. The fact Howard had 0 RBIs is a matter of circumstance and luck, not a reflection of "how bad he is," "the disappearance of his bat," or his "lack of clutchness," never mind that a hitter being "clutch" is a ridiculous and absurd notion to begin with.

If you want to be mad and blame someone? Blame the team as a whole. You win as a team and you lose as a team, and whether people like it or not, the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies lost as a team in the NLCS. As much as people in the media and some fans like to have a goat they can be angry at, there is no goat here to be had, and that goat damn sure is not the guy who was one of team's best players in the NLCS. A .635 OPS will do a team in, not the guy leading the team in hits, doubles, batting average, on-base percentage, and 2nd on the team in slugging percentage and OPS.

Mike Vick: A Statistical Explanation Of Why He Should Not Be The Eagles Starter This Year

Over the past week, I have made several arguments about why Vick should not be the starter, most of them dealing with team chemistry, locker room management, and common sense. But, those are not the only reasons. In arguing with a bunch of nitwits over at Bleeding Green Nation, I stumbled upon another argument for why Mike Vick should not be the starting QB for the Eagles, this one being rooted in statistics. Unlike Kevin Kolb, who in his career has only made sporadic appearances in addition to starting 2 games in 2009, Mike Vick has been a QB in the NFL since 2001, playing in 88 games since being drafted. Granted that includes the 12 games he appeared in last year as Andy Reid's toy, but his role was so limited that the effect they had on his passing averages, if any, are minimal, as Vick only threw 13 passes all season.

Michael Vick's 2010 passing stats after 2 games:

Completion percentage: 63.79%.
Passing yards per game: 229.5 yards
Passer rating: 101.5
TD-INT ratio: 3-0

Michael Vick's career numbers:

Completion percentage: 53.9%
Passing yards per game: 135.2 yares.
Passer rating: 76.2.
TD-INT ratio: 76-52 (simplified as 1.46-1, or 1.46 TDs for every 1 INT)

The contrast is startling.

While the uninformed fan may point out that this means Mike Vick is better than ever, it is important to ignore him/her and focus on rationality and look at what exactly has happened. Vick was forced to enter the game after Kevin Kolb went down Week 1 with a concussion. The Green Bay Packers had prepared mostly for Kolb, and while I am sure they talked about Vick and had some plans for him, he was not the vocal point of Dom Capers' preparation. Give a playmaker like Vick a team not expecting him in large doses for a full half of football, and the numbers are naturally going to be inflated provided there is no fuck up (which there wasn't). Week 2 against the Detroit Lions, Vick faced a team with one of the worst secondaries in football. The Lions strength this year is their offense and maybe an emerging D-line with Suh. Their secondary is weak. Need further proof? They started CC Brown at safety. Vick did as most QBs should do and picked apart a bad secondary. Well done, Michael.

But even if this was against 2 good and prepared defenses, the stats need to be re-examined. Michael Vick's completion percentage is up nearly 10% from his career. His TD-INT ratio is perfect. His QB rating is 25.3 points higher than his career average. His yards/game is up over 100, and that is without playing a full half against the Green Bay Packers. These "great" numbers are based on 6 quarters. Just like Kevin Kolb's career consists of nothing but small sample sizes, the same can be said with Mike Vick's 2010 season. 6+ quarters does not erase a career of mediocrity throwing the football.

It is important to recognize that Mike Vick spent 2 years rotting away in a prison in Kansas. When released, not only was he out of shape, he was out of football shape. It was painful watching him come in his first few games last season. Now, after sporadic appearances in 2009, an off-season of working out and partying, a full 2010 training camp spent as the back up QB, sporadic appearances in the pre-season with mostly 2nd teamers, Kolb-haters now believe that this man is now the rightful starter of the 2010 season. By all accounts, Mike Vick is playing well over his head and putting up numbers that are unsustainable for him when compared to his career numbers. If Vick were to start more games for this season for whatever the reason, there is no way people can expect Vick to keep up and continue to outperform his career numbers in such an emphatic manner, especially when he comes up against fully prepared defenses with decent to very good secondaries. It is almost impossible for someone to have gone through what Vick has and be a better passing QB now than he was then, especially given what little time has elapsed since his release.

It is one thing if he were putting up his career averages these past 2 games, but these numbers are so far above the mean that a painful regression is only inevitable should Michael Vick start more games for the Philadelphia Eagles.