Over the past week, I have made several arguments about why Vick should not be the starter, most of them dealing with team chemistry, locker room management, and common sense. But, those are not the only reasons. In arguing with a bunch of nitwits over at Bleeding Green Nation, I stumbled upon another argument for why Mike Vick should not be the starting QB for the Eagles, this one being rooted in statistics. Unlike Kevin Kolb, who in his career has only made sporadic appearances in addition to starting 2 games in 2009, Mike Vick has been a QB in the NFL since 2001, playing in 88 games since being drafted. Granted that includes the 12 games he appeared in last year as Andy Reid's toy, but his role was so limited that the effect they had on his passing averages, if any, are minimal, as Vick only threw 13 passes all season.
Michael Vick's 2010 passing stats after 2 games:
Completion percentage: 63.79%.
Passing yards per game: 229.5 yards
Passer rating: 101.5
TD-INT ratio: 3-0
Michael Vick's career numbers:
Completion percentage: 53.9%
Passing yards per game: 135.2 yares.
Passer rating: 76.2.
TD-INT ratio: 76-52 (simplified as 1.46-1, or 1.46 TDs for every 1 INT)
The contrast is startling.
While the uninformed fan may point out that this means Mike Vick is better than ever, it is important to ignore him/her and focus on rationality and look at what exactly has happened. Vick was forced to enter the game after Kevin Kolb went down Week 1 with a concussion. The Green Bay Packers had prepared mostly for Kolb, and while I am sure they talked about Vick and had some plans for him, he was not the vocal point of Dom Capers' preparation. Give a playmaker like Vick a team not expecting him in large doses for a full half of football, and the numbers are naturally going to be inflated provided there is no fuck up (which there wasn't). Week 2 against the Detroit Lions, Vick faced a team with one of the worst secondaries in football. The Lions strength this year is their offense and maybe an emerging D-line with Suh. Their secondary is weak. Need further proof? They started CC Brown at safety. Vick did as most QBs should do and picked apart a bad secondary. Well done, Michael.
But even if this was against 2 good and prepared defenses, the stats need to be re-examined. Michael Vick's completion percentage is up nearly 10% from his career. His TD-INT ratio is perfect. His QB rating is 25.3 points higher than his career average. His yards/game is up over 100, and that is without playing a full half against the Green Bay Packers. These "great" numbers are based on 6 quarters. Just like Kevin Kolb's career consists of nothing but small sample sizes, the same can be said with Mike Vick's 2010 season. 6+ quarters does not erase a career of mediocrity throwing the football.
It is important to recognize that Mike Vick spent 2 years rotting away in a prison in Kansas. When released, not only was he out of shape, he was out of football shape. It was painful watching him come in his first few games last season. Now, after sporadic appearances in 2009, an off-season of working out and partying, a full 2010 training camp spent as the back up QB, sporadic appearances in the pre-season with mostly 2nd teamers, Kolb-haters now believe that this man is now the rightful starter of the 2010 season. By all accounts, Mike Vick is playing well over his head and putting up numbers that are unsustainable for him when compared to his career numbers. If Vick were to start more games for this season for whatever the reason, there is no way people can expect Vick to keep up and continue to outperform his career numbers in such an emphatic manner, especially when he comes up against fully prepared defenses with decent to very good secondaries. It is almost impossible for someone to have gone through what Vick has and be a better passing QB now than he was then, especially given what little time has elapsed since his release.
It is one thing if he were putting up his career averages these past 2 games, but these numbers are so far above the mean that a painful regression is only inevitable should Michael Vick start more games for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Interesting...but I must disagree with you on the matters of his older numbers vs now. Funny things happen to a person over the course of three seasons, they get three years older. Mike Vick doesn't look blazing fast anymore. He can move around the pocket and run, but he has lost a step. Realizing this, his arm looks way better than it did in Atlanta. Vick also has received the benefit of working with the eagles staff for two seasons now, and does have a better receiving corps than in Atlanta.
ReplyDeleteMike Vick also has a winning percentage near .600, he's played in big games and overall is much more skilled than Kevin Kolb.
Like the McNabb trade, sticking with Kolb will be another huge error that Philly can make this year. The NFC is weak sauce this year, and prime for an Eagles run. Sure the Defense is like Swiss cheese, but with Vick, you'll score points, and I believe you all can shoot out your way past any team in the league, especially in December.
If you want to make the most out of your season, Play Vick, if your placing your faith in a kid who will not produce play Kolb.
Its really awesome how Vick starting and having great numbers is a fluke because no one was preparing for him...but when Kolb did it last year, he was the future.
A better coach and a marginally better receiving corps do not bump a QB's completion % by 10 points and a rating by 25. Those are numbers sure to go down if Vick continues to play this year.
ReplyDeleteKevin Kolb outplayed Vick for the past 6 months. There is no reason to say that that can't continue now. Here are the pre-season numbers:
Kolb combined in 3 pre-season games: 28/53 for 324 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Vick combined in 4 pre-season games: 16/28 for 189 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT
All beat writer reporters said Kolb played better than Vick in Training Camp. To suggest the trend will continue in the regular season once Kevin Kolb is given a big enough sample size to be judged off of is not a stretch by any means.
The biggest mistake the Eagles can make is play a QB who will not be with the team in 6 months when all indicators suggest he is not the best QB on this team. It will set the franchise back a whole year.
I don't understand how you all can have so much faith in Kevin Kolb?
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, its training camp. Preseason and Training Camp can show you what a player can do in base sets, and drills. Especially at the QB position where you play 7 on 7 and run scripted plays over and over to get the basic foundation down.
What does this mean in the spectrum of real, game time football? That you know the plays and the routes. It has nothing to do with how well you will actually play in a game situation.
Funny thing happens after pre-season. Defenses shift, they stunt, they show blitz and then back off into coverage...they play real football.
Passing drills and play practice doesn't call for players to recognize broken plays. For 7 on 7's, you don't have a pass rush, and in practice you don't get touched.
Mike Vick is the master of a broken play, He makes defenders loose sleep over his foot speed. His ability to move around the pocket cannot be tested during preseason because of the fact that teams never show their true hand. Kolb is a Pocket QB, Vick is a Weapon QB.
Kolb may be a great practice guy, but he really doesn't have the ability to play this game at this level. He played decent against a Saint's Team that cruised by the eagles, and he beat the Chiefs... Other than that, he's been horrible, as Green Bay has shown.
His numbers in college are inflated, he played against no competition and choked in EVERY bowl game he played in.
I'd understand it if he was the only bright spot of his college team, or if he was really as amazing as you all believe he is...but Kevin Kolb really lacks the ability to play at this level. The fact that he was taken after Jamarcus Russel and Brady Quinn should be more than enough reasons for Eagles fans to worry. I agree that a change was needed, but he is not the answer. You'll see this by week 8. I give the Eagles Jacksonville, but after that, good night.
Congrats! Andy apparently sees it your way now. I disagree in theory with starting Vick, but I am an Eagles fan through and through and will support the team even if they sign JeMarcus Russell and make him the starter. Okay, maybe not that, but Vick has my support through and through and I will judge his play accordingly.
ReplyDeleteI found this blog while trying to figure out the last time Mike Vick threw an int. You sir, should be very full from all of thecrow you have eaten.
ReplyDeleteI found this blog while trying to figure out the last time Mike Vick threw an int.
ReplyDeleteI noticed. I have eaten my share of crow on the Vick issue. Click on the "Michael Vick" tag and read it for yourself.
Answer to your initial inquiry on Vick's last INT: December 24, 2006 against Carolina.
/Sorry about the odd commenting set up. I accidentally deleted your comment as it got sent to me twice, I deleted one copy of it and apparently I can't republish any of them now.
I copied and posted your comment, entered your username, into the Name/URL section, and posted your comment verbatim.
ReplyDelete/Any comment on a blog post older than 2 weeks old has to be approved by me before publishing as a preventative measure against spam comments. You'd be surprised how much comes in.
You should find some salt and pepper to put on that foot in your mouth, wash it down with some green Hater-Ade, and return to the crack in the pavement from which you rose from "mediocrity". VA Vick is AMAZING! We look like very serious contenders with Vick taking the snaps.
ReplyDelete@ 7City's LWells: Like I told Montana, click on the Michael Vick tag and see what I have been writing for the past month or so, instead of commenting on a post 2 months old and immediately assuming my opinions have not changed. You might find this post, written LAST WEEK (meaning before this Redskins game) particularly interesting. In fact,I even make a reference to this post in it.
ReplyDeletehttp://fireandyreidnow.blogspot.com/2010/11/michael-vick-closer-look-at-improved.html
I agree with you that the Eagles are looking like serious contenders. Especially in this seemingly watered down version of the NFC.