A History Of The #3 Seed In The Current NFL Playoffs Format

(Originally posted at Bleeding Green Nation)

As everyone knows by now, the Eagles have won the NFC East and are now the 3-seed in the NFL Playoffs. In 1990, the NFL adopted its current format for the playoffs where the top 2 seeds get a bye while the remaining teams face off in a Wild Card round where the 3 seed faces the 6 seed and the 4 seed faces the 5 seed without any restrictions on not being able to play a divisional rival. Now it is important to note that in 2002 there was divisional re-alignment and each conference took a team away from a division and a 4th division in each conference was born, but for the past 20 years, the #3 seed was (record wise) the 3rd best division in each conference, their 1st opponent was the worst (record wise) non-division winner to make the playoffs, and their 2nd opponent should they advance has always been the #2 seed which (record wise) is the 2nd best division winner in the conference. So while division re-alignment happened, the path of the identity and path of the #3 seed have remained the same. So without further ado, here is a look at how both the NFC and AFC #3 seeds have fared since the adoption of this playoff format and what seed the eventual Super Bowl champions started out as! (FYI, I am going into this with no idea what I am going to discover or what the majority of the results will be)

America Can't Spell

Behold Twitter's Trending Topics hours after Stanford ended the UConn women's winning streak!

To make America feel better, the world had the same spelling. To make everyone feel worse, uh, this is kind of a big name college we are talking about here.....

NFL Week 17 Schedule

It's the most exciting week of the season! Playoff spots are on the line, including an NFC West championship to determine a playoff spot and a Top 10 draft pick, an AFC South title is on the line to determine a playoff spot and a middle of the round draft pick, and 3 1st round byes are still up for grabs. It promises to be a wild ride, so without further ado, here is your Week 17 schedule! (all times ET)

Map of who gets what Fox early game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints 1:00 (Fox - Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick)
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons 1:00 (Fox - Dick Stockton and Charles Davis)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions 1:00 (Fox - Ron Pitts and John Lynch)

Map of who gets what CBS early game.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns 1:00 (CBS - Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens 1:00 (CBS - Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots)
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets 1:00 (CBS - Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker)
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots 1:00 (CBS - Bill Macatee and Rich Gannon)
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 (CBS - Spero Dedes and Randy Cross)

Map of who gets what Fox late game.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers 4:15 (Fox - Joe Buck and Troy Aikman)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 (Fox - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa)
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins 4:15 (Fox - Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan)
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers 4:15 (Fox - Chris Myers and Jim Mora, Jr.)

Map of who gets what CBS late game.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts 4:15 (CBS - Jim Nantz and Phil Simms)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans 4:15 (CBS - Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf)
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos 4:15 (CBS - Don Criqui and Steve Beuerlein)

Sunday Night Football

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks 8:20 (NBC - Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth)

Eagles Week 16 Recap: The Worst Possible Result For The Eagles?

In short, the answer is no. Here are the bullets

• There is going to be a natural tendency to panic and say "OMG the Eagles lost to the Vikings starting Joe Webb this team is not worthy of the UFL!," but take a step back from the cliff for a second.  And even though I may highlight a few players who had a good game tonight (and there were), that does not and will not change the fact that this was a complete and utter turd of a football performance from the Eagles.  Absolutely lackluster.  Andy Reid's idiocy made things worse.  A turd is a turd and that was a turd and I will not pretend otherwise.  This was a shit show.  But, look at the big picture here.  If the Eagles were going to have a shit show, this was the week to do it.  And here's why.
• I delineated the playoff scenarios earlier and while they are all moot now for the Eagles, there is something to be said.  Every scenario that involved the Eagles moving up included in some way, shape, or form, getting help from other teams.  You can say you like the odds of Green Bay beating Chicago, but many people liked the odds of the Eagles beating the Vikings by two touchdowns.  Yeah, that did not happen, now did it.  But there was no guarantee of the bye.  Thanks to the blizzard, this game was postponed two days and the Eagles were looking at the prospect at playing 3 games in 12 days if the Bears beat the Packers and the crazy 3-way tie scenario did not shake out.  For any team, that is a lot.  But for an Eagles team as banged up as this one is, that may have been the death nail.  Now the Eagles can rest Vick, Jackson, and Samuel, all of whom seem to be bothered by injury, and the rest all of their starters in preparation for the playoffs.  So essentially, the Eagles starters have a bye after all.  But the trade off is the Eagles have to field a team of bodies (hello starting safety Colt Anderson!) against the Cowboys and will have to play on wildcard weekend.  If given the option of losing this game, resting starters Week 17, and getting the 3 seed or going all out and winning the last 2 games, not getting the necessary help, end up with the 3 seed, and play a 3rd game in 12 days with this being an elimination game, I'd take the scenario that unfolded tonight.  Of course, a bye in the playoffs is the ultimate goal, but if you can't have that, this really is the next best thing.  3 seed in the playoffs and you can rest your starters Week 17.  Not entirely awful, folks.
• The Eagles had 12 penalties against them tonight.  Yikes.
• DeSean Jackson was a non-factor in this game.
• Andy Reid made an awful decision to punt the ball on a 4th and 18 with 4:30 left, down by 10 points, and carrying only 2 timeouts.  Yeah, 4th and 18 is a longshot, but by punting the ball you essentially concede the game.  You can't expect incredibleness like that The Miracle At The New Meadowlands to happen every game.  It's a long shot, but the Eagles are a big play offense.  You have to be aggressive at some point when you are trailing, and Andy Reid showed no aggressiveness at all.  On the contrary, the Eagles were plenty aggressive against the Giants on Sunday.  But at the same token, the Eagles were not faced with one 4th down on their scoring drives in the 4th quarter of that game, so who knows how aggressive the Eagles would have been there.  But regardless, the onside kick when they that Cooper recovered was absolutely aggressive and going at it.  Same with the play-calling.  This performance, on the other hand, was lackadaisical.
• The Eagles defense yielded only 17 points.  Even though it is not great against a team starting Joe Webb, it still should have been enough against the Vikings.  But too many offensive mistakes cost the Eagles in this one.
• Joe Webb was not great, but he did not screw up, which given what happened Monday Night against the Bears, is quite the feat for him.
• After all the delays and postponements the Vikings have faced this year, no one would have been surprised if they tucked their tail for this game, just wanting to get out of this season.  Credit to them, they played a darn good football game.  If Leslie Frazier is not hired as the Minnesota Vikings head coach, they are seriously very dumb. 
• Eagles who had decent games:  Kurt Coleman (despite 1 missed tackle that set up the game-clinching drive), LeSean McCoy, Jamar Chaney (despite 1 missed coverage that hurt the Eagles, as a 7th round rookie and a back-up who has not played a lot until Bradley got hurt, I was impressed), Brent Celek.
• Eagles who had bad games:  Everyone else.
• Andy Reid just said at his press conference that his team did not deserve to rest against Dallas.  They may not deserve it, but they damn well need it.  If the 1st team offense (and defense for that matter) sees more than 2 series on Sunday against Dallas, it will be a crime against football. 
• The Minnesota Vikings have just defeated the Eagles for the first time in the Andy Reid era.  A team with Brett Favre on it has defeated the Eagles in Philadelphia for the first time ever.  So there's those meaningless records we can be ashamed of losing.
• Andy Reid is lashing out at a reporter, the Eagles played like shit (and angered fans) the Flyers played like shit (and angered fans), Jody Shelley is getting his goon on and cheap shotting people, commenters on Broad Street Hockey and Bleeding Green Nation are getting into fights and arguments.  I think what everyone needs is a night's sleep.  So with that, the win probability graph (advancednflstats.com) is posted below and on that note, I bid you good night.

Tuesday Night Football Open Thread

IS OVER HERE. So go on, don't be shy, head on over to Keith's Sports Journal to discuss this Tuesday night clash between the Vikings and the Eagles.

Read This Post If You Want A Headache!

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, the scenarios for the Eagles to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs!

Q: Can the Eagles still earn the top seed in the NFC?

A: Yes, but it's a longshot. There are two scenarios. The first one requires four things to happen:

1. Eagles beat Vikings and Cowboys.
2. Saints lose to Bucs in Week 17.
3. Falcons lose to Panthers in Week 17.
4. Bears lose to Packers in Week 17.

In this scenario, the Eagles and Falcons both finish at 12-4, and the Eagles get the tiebreak since they beat Atlanta earlier this season.

The second scenario plays out if the Bears beat the Packers and create a three-way tie of 12-4 teams (Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia). If that happens, the Eagles would FIRST need three things to happen:

1. Eagles beat Vikings and Cowboys.
2. Saints lose to Bucs in Week 17.
3. Falcons lose to Panthers in Week 17.

However, even if those three things happen, the Eagles ARE NOT guaranteed the top spot.

The head-to-head tiebreak would be irrelevant because the Falcons and Bears didn't play each other. Conference win-loss percentage is the next step, but all three teams would be 9-3 against the NFC.

Next up would be win-loss percentage in common games, but there needs to be a minimum of four common games between the three teams, which there are not.

And so it would come down to strength of victory - a tiebreak that cannot yet be determined because Week 17 has to play out. In other words, you'd take the combined win-loss records of the teams that the Eagles, Bears and Falcons each beat this season. The team with lowest opponents' win-percentage gets bounced, and the other two teams run through the set of tiebreakers again.

[...]

Basically, you want to root for teams the Eagles have beaten this season to win in Week 17. And you want to root for teams the Bears and Falcons have beaten this season to lose in Week 17.

[...]

It's important to note here that if the Saints, Falcons, Eagles and Bears all finish 12-4, the Saints get the one-seed, the Bears get the two-seed, the Eagles get the three-seed and the Falcons get the fifth-seed (as the top wild card).

I don't feel so good.

Now to the simple scenarios that my feeble human mind can wrap it's head around. There is but one scenario for the Eagles to get the #2 seed. Eagles beat Minnesota and Dallas, and Green Bay beats Chicago in Week 17. If none of these scenarios happen and the Eagles do not get a bye, they will be a #3 seed where they will face either Green Bay, New York Giants, or Tampa Bay. Want another headache? Here are the Green Bay, New York, and Tampa Bay scenarios!

Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
1) GB win
2) GB tie + NYG loss or tie + TB loss or tie
3) NYG loss + TB loss

NY Giants clinch a playoff spot:
1) NYG win + GB loss or tie
2) NYG tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie

Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot:
1) TB win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
2) TB tie + NYG loss + GB loss

Want to avoid these feelings of nausea, headaches, and weakness? Support a 2010 AFC team.

One ESPN Graphic, So Much Fail

This is without a doubt the most embarrassing graphic ESPN has put up since the Brett Favre 500th touchdown party graphic. How someone let this graphic get onto the ESPN broadcast will forever be a mystery.

It is no secret that everyone at ESPN wants some time alone with Brett Favre for a few minutes of happy time, but just because Brett Favre is on the Vikings does not mean the Vikings are in playoff contention. They are mathematically eliminated. And they are not even 5-7. Their record coming into Tuesday Night's game with the Eagles is 5-9.

But yet, my favorite part of this has to be that "Team Name" and "Team Name," both with records of 0-0 are still vying for a playoff spot. With players like "Quarterback," "Hard-Hitting Linebacker," and "Prima Donna Wide Receiver," "Team Name" is a threat to win the Super Bowl this year.

(Hat tip to some random guy on Twitter I found by running a "team name twitpic" Twitter search.)