The Philadelphia Phillies just acquired yet another ace in Roy Oswalt, thus giving them a top 3 rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. Naturally, given that, the fact they have won the NLCS in the past 2 years, made the playoffs the last 3, and have a bunch of big names on their team now, the comparisons are going to come that the Phillies are the next, Mets and Yankees, at least in the mind of the casual fan. But the question remains, are the comparisons valid? Are the Phillies the 2nd coming of teams most casual fans hate?
I will answer this by comparing how the Phillies acquired the top players and starting pitchers and closer on their current roster in comparison to the top players and starting pitchers and closer on the other teams' current roster. Up first, how the Phillies acquired their players (yes, I am aware that there are more players than this on the teams; this piece concerns the big names and the regular starters when everyone is healthy, not the role players, bench players and the fill-ins for injury, i.e. Wilson Valdez).
Phillies
Carlos Ruiz: Signed as an amateur free agent in 1998.
Ryan Howard: Drafted in the 5th round of the 2001 draft.
Chase Utley: Drafted in the 1st round of the 2000 draft.
Jimmy Rollins: Drafted in the 1st round of the 1996 draft.
Placido Polanco: Signed as a free agent (for the 2nd time) in 2009.
Raul Ibanez: Signed as a free agent in 2008.
Shane Victorino: Drafted by the Phillies in the 2004 Rule 5 Draft.
Jayson Werth: Signed as a free agent in 2006.
Roy Halladay: Traded by Toronto to Philadelphia in 2009.
Cole Hamels: Drafted in the 1st round 2002 draft.
Roy Oswalt: Traded by Houston to Philadelphia in 2010.
Joe Blanton: Traded by Oakland to Philadelphia in 2008.
Kyle Kendrick: Drafted in the 7th round of the 2003 draft.
Brad Lidge: Traded by Houston to Philadelphia in 2007.
Phillies totals
Amateur Draft: 5
Amateur Free Agents: 1
Rule 5 Draft: 1
Free Agency: 3
Trades: 4
New York Mets
Rod Barajas: Signed as a free agent in 2010.
Ike Davis: Drafted by in the 2008 draft.
Luis Castillo: Signed as a free agent in 2007.
Jose Reyes: Signed as an amateur free agent in 1999.
David Wright: Drafted in the 2001 draft.
Jason Bay: Signed as a free agent in 2009
Angel Pagan: Traded by Chicago Cubs to New York Mets in 2008.
Jeff Francoeur: Traded by Atlanta to New York Mets in 2009.
Carlos Beltran: Signed as a free agent in 2005.
Johan Santana: Traded by Minnesota to New York Mets
Jonathon Niese: Drafted in 7th round of the 2005 draft.
Mike Pelfrey: Drafted in the 1st round of the 2005 draft.
R.A. Dickey: Signed as a free agent in 2010.
Hisanori Takahashi: Signed as a free agent in 2010.
Francisco Rodriguez: Signed as a free agent in 2008.
Mets totals
Amateur Draft: 4
Amateur Free Agents: 1
Rule 5 Draft: 0
Free Agency: 6
Trades: 3
New York Yankees
Francisco Cervelli: Signed as an amateur free agent in 2003.
Mark Teixeira: Signed as a free agent in 2009.
Robinson Cano: Signed as an amateur free agent in 2001.
Derek Jeter: Drafted in the 1st round of the 1992 draft.
Alex Rodriguez: Signed as a free agent in 2007.
Brett Garnder: Drafted by Yankees in 3rd round of 2005 draft.
Curtis Granderson: Traded by Detroit to New York Yankees in 2009.
Nick Swisher: Traded by Chicago White Sox to New York Yankees in 2008.
Jorge Posada: Drafted by the New York Yankees in the 20th round of the 1990 draft.
Andy Pettitte: Signed as a free agent in 2006.
Javier Vazquez: Traded by Atlanta to New York Yankees in 2009.
CC Sabathia: Signed as a free agent in 2008.
A.J. Burnett: Signed as a free agent in 2008.
Phil Hughes: Drafted by the Yankees in the 2004 draft.
Mariano Rivera: Signed as an amateur free agent in 1990.
Yankees totals
Amateur Draft: 4
Amateur Free Agents: 3
Rule 5 Draft: 0
Free Agency: 5
Trades: 3
I wanted to add the Red Sox in here, but frankly, I need to get up at 6 AM, and it is getting late and I am running out of time. Maybe sometime tomorrow after Oswalt's debut I will add them in here.
But as far as the straight up comparisons with the New York teams, I think the numbers speak for themselves. The Phillies main core of players consist of 3 free agents whereas the Mets have 6 and the Yankees have 5. Halladay and Oswalt were both acquired through trade, whereas Burnett and Sabathia were both signed directly through the dollar-dollar bills (though in fairness, the sticking point of the Halladay trade was the immediate contract extension the Phillies were able to offer him). And while it kind of looks like egg on the face of the Phillies that they got Jayson Werth through free agency, it should be known that when they signed him, no one knew he would end up being such a star that he is. Heck, in 2008 he started the season platooning with Geoff Jenkins in right field before winning the job outright towards the end of the season.
It should be noted that in addition to less free agents, the Phillies have more trades than each of the 2 New York teams and more draft picks than each of the 2 New York teams, though credit must be given as the Yankees really know how to score with the undrafted amateur free agents.
Again, hopefully I will be able to do the Red Sox tomorrow, but I am out of gas and in need of sleep before waking up at 6 AM to go to work for the whole day (I can taste the coffee from here). Unrelated to the Phillies and baseball, but the Eagles have signed their 1st round draft pick Brandon Graham late this evening. Just thought I should let you know before I go to bed.
I read your twitter comment on you wanting to bring up Scott Mathieson as the Phillies closer. Before I put you in your place, let me make sure I understand what you are saying, Your saying that the Phillies should call up Schott Mathieson, and put him in the closer role immediatley?
ReplyDelete@ Anon: Yes. I would like to call up Scott Mathieson and put him in the closer role. You have a better idea?
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting......
ReplyDeleteYa actaully I do: Its called every single player in the Majors that isnt a rookie. Hell, Felipe Lopez didnt do all too bad pitching. Here is what I'd like you to do to make my life simpler, you seem to know a lot of statistical informational sites out there, I challenge you to find me one great no, not great, GOOD closer who started out his career in the closer role. Go.
ReplyDeleteAnd by the way, Scott's one inning pitched in the Majors doesnt count as "not starting his career" in the closer role.
ReplyDeleteOh my bad, He played half a year in the Majors in 06 (a shitty one at that). Fine, doesnt matter, I'll give you the same exact challenge except the closer is allowed to have played 1/2 a year in the Majors.
ReplyDeleteFrom my brief research period, Ive found only one guy who, in half a year, became a closer. So, unless Scott Mathieson is the next Billy Wagner (and judging by Scott's time in the Majors I highly doubt that), putting a rookie in the closer role is stupid. Hmm I wonder why? Maybe because the closer is the hardest position in baseball. May I also add that Wagner wasnt the solo closer until the begining of the 1997 year. Hmm, once again, I wonder why? Maybe thats because it would be even more stupid to put a rookie as a closer in a pennant race! By judging off your posts of your blog, you seem like the kind of guy that makes fun of when teams dont get along well (I dont blame you). Well, how do you think Brad Lidge would feel along with everyone else in that bullpen (where the closer is the most desired role) if you all of a sudden promote a fucking rookie into the closer role. Ya sure, Brad Lidge wouldnt be bothered by that at all. "It's just part of the game," Im sure he'll say. You talk about some pissed off men. Lets put this in perspective for you. You have been writing this blog for 3 years (just for story's sake), and even one year you won Best Sports Blog of the year. But, after a year of some crappy posts you want to come back strong. For the most part you have been doing good, with the exception of a few shitty posts. You feel good that you can rebound, but just like that some Internet Boss (just for story's sake) kicks you off your blog and decides it would be better off with someone who has never blogged in their life. That would cause an issue no? I really hope to every baseball God that you wanting to put a rookie (who has blown dick in the majors) as a closer was just an overreaction.
ReplyDelete"You gotta better solution?" Ya I do:
Step 1. Keep Lidge as your closer. Even though I know he hasnt played a full year, 4 blown saves is not too bad. Give him time. If he goes 7-8 saves without blowing one then that is a real good improvement. 4 Blown Saves is by far no reason to demote a closer
Step 2. If Brad Lidge does suck and blows 2 saves in 5-7 attempts then you go to Step 3....
Step 3. Put in either Contreras, Baez, or Madson as your closer. Both Madsdon and Contreras have had closer experience THIS YEAR, and know what they are doing. As for Baez. well, maybe some proven and shown confidence in the man will light a spark under his ass.
Step 4. Hope that one of the 3 performs well and your closer issue is solved.
Step 5. If they dont perform well then you can always go back to Lidge. Chances are he'll be upset that he is demoted (not as much as if he was being demoted for a rookie), and will come back determined to prove people wrong
Step 6. If you are really that high into getting Mathieson into the closer role then meanwhile all of this, you call him up and use him like the Phillies use Durbin now.
Step 7. If Steps 1-5 all fail, then at least because of Step 6, you have a closer that will have Spring Training to prepare recieving the role come the 2011 season, and Brad Lidge and everyone else will understand why.
@ Anon: Thanks for the detailed argument!
ReplyDeleteMy argument for Mathieson is that there is no one else that can do the job. Closer may be the toughest jobs in the big leagues to learn, but given the Phillies situation, Mathieson can't be any worse than anything the Phillies have now.
4 blown saves in a year normally is not bad, but when the number of save opportunities in that year is only 11 (as it is for Lidge in 2010), it is downright deplorable. That is a save percentage of 63.64%. Francisco Rodriguez's save percentage is currently 81.4% and by most accounts, he is having a horrible year. Now a understand Lidge's 11 opportunities is a smaller sample size and while I would expect it to increase a bit if he continues to be given save opportunities, it is not going to be great any time this year. Brad Lidge's best years are behind him. It is not just a lost mojo thing. His fastball has lost 2 MPH from 2008 (I am recalling this stat from my head so I may be off a few decimal spots) and has been forced more and more to rely on his slider. He is trying to learn how to be a different pitcher and it is failing miserably.
As far as alternative options, I mention Mathieson because there really is no other viable option.
Ryan Madson was given opportunities last year and this year to be the closer and both times he has shown that he is no better than Lidge.
Danys Baez sucks. End of story.
When Jose Contreras is on his game, he would be a viable option at closer, but the problem with Contreras is his inconsistency.
Would Mathieson be the equivalent of Brad Lidge circa 2008? Absolutely not. But given the other options, I would give the rookie the opportunity. If the Phillies are hesitant to give a hefty job to a rookie, then I would try Madson and hope that in his past experiences as a closer, he has learned a thing or 2 and is improved from what he has shown when he tried to close last year and the beginning of this year.
Point well taken.
ReplyDelete