Halfway Through This Season, Are The 2010 Phillies Destined For Failure?

The Philadelphia Phillies may have the same record now as they did at the midway point of the 2008 season AND the 2009 season, but let's get one thing perfectly straight, the 2010 Phillies as they are now would not last 5 seconds in the playoffs. Injuries have hit the Phillies harder this year than at this point in the past 2 years combined in terms of number of games missed thus far (that's not hyperbole, that is a fact). But is that the real reason why they are the 2009 New York Mets of 2010? It is hard to say for sure. Their 43-39 record is the same record they had at this point in their past 2 NL championship seasons. But now they are in 3rd place and 4 games out of 1st place, as opposed to in 1st place, something that record was good enough for last year in the NL East.

So what has changed? Well, for starters, the competition has improved. Now how long the Braves can last with Troy Glaus as their clean-up hitter remains to be seen, but the Braves boast an excellent and deep pitching staff that can keep even their offense in games. And the Mets....well, as much as luck has factored into their equation (just ask Mike Pelfrey), they are not fielding their Double A squad as their major league squad right now. Epic win for them! Only time will tell if these teams keep it up, but barring a major choke or collapse, you can't deny they are ahead of the Phillies, both in terms of current record and outlook for the immediate future.

But it should not be about the competition. Even if the Braves and the Mets are better, they certainly are not great. And after all, the Phillies are supposed to be great, right? So what's the matter here? Why are have the Phillies fallen off the radar?

Injuries will certainly be a scapegoat and is certainly a contributing factor, but it is not the million dollar answer. The million dollar answer is Ruben Amaro, the bullpen, and Charlie Manuel.

Even if they are not having the world's greatest year, the Phillies offense has the talent to compete with any team against any pitcher. I am not that worried about the offense. As much as I have been against such a move all year long, Domonic Brown has dominated Triple A like none other. He was a beast in Spring Training and has been amazing all year in the Minors. Keith Law has him rated as the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Maybe sending Raul Ibanez to the bench and calling up Brown to be the starting left-fielder may not be the worst thing in the world. As Dash Treyhorn explained to me on Twitter, "He can help the team now. What is an extra month or so in AAA going to do?" What I am worried about is the Phillies bullpen, Charlie Manuel's ignorance in terms of handling his pitching staff, and Ruben Amaro's refusal to rectify the real problem this team has.

When Jose Contreras is your best reliever, you know that you have bullpen problems. Brad Lidge is as inconsistent as the day is long and Ryan Madson is too big of a crybaby to shrug a few bad outings off. Instead, he kicked a chair in San Francisco, broke his toe kicking the chair, and still has not returned to the Phillies. You can blame injuries all you want, but when one of your top relievers (provided he is not pitching the 9th inning) injuries himself for nearly 3 months, you have no one to blame but yourself. It was immature, irresponsible, and downright stupid. Surely one has to know that an inherent risk of kicking a metal chair is the metal chair getting the better of your body.

When Danys Baez is signed by your team, you know you have an incompetent general manager. As blasphemy as it may seem to the ignorant Phillies fan, (and if you think this is blasphemous, wait until I blast a World Series winning manager later on in this piece), Ruben Amaro has not done a good job taking over as the Phillies manager after Pat Gillick retired in 2008. Like he is approaching Ed Wade levels of awfulness. The problem with the Phillies is their inability to close out games. Their bullpen is awful. I've covered that. We know that. It's a fact. Yet, for some strange reason, Ruben Amaro's primary focus this trade deadline is to focus on STARTING pitching. Starting pitching is the furthest thing from this team's problem. I don't fault Ruben Amaro for trading Cliff Lee. Heck, I think the Halladay-Lee fiasco is one of the better things he has done this year, with his only slip-up being trading Lee too soon and trying to squeeze some more, if not better, prospects out of Seattle or any other AL team that could not hurt the Phillies this year. I won't be upset if the Phillies bring in Dan Haren at the right price (oh boy, is that key; if Ruben Amaro ever thinks for a second he is going to trade Domonic Brown for a starting pitcher this summer, he should be banned from standing within a 500 mile radius of the city), but starting pitching is not the problem. Another ace would be a nice luxury, but improving the bullpen is a necessity if this team is going to compete. Just look at 2008. The Phillies did not lose a 9th inning lead all season long. In 2009, their lack of ability to hold onto leads cost them the World Series. In 2010 and at this rate, their lack of ability to close out leads is going to cost them a spot in the playoffs.

But there is another problem. And he comes in the form of a World Series winning manager named Charlie Manuel. Let's face facts. The only thing Charlie Manuel knows about pitching is how to hit it. In the finale against the Pittsburgh series, he left Joe Blanton in the game an inning too long and they ended up blowing a lead. Was fear of the horrid bullpen part of that decisio? I am sure. But you have to know your starters. Joe Blanton is not the type to go very long into games, regardless of how many pitches he has thrown. It was a disaster just waiting to happen. Last night, I was there at Citizens Bank Park sweating it out in the ever-dreadful 9:00 PM 95 degree heat as Charlie Manuel had Cole Hamels pitch the 7th inning after he threw 100 pitches in the game's 6 previous innings. Cole Hamels was 1 strike away from getting out of the inning until Matt Diaz launched one to give the Braves a then 3-2 lead (the Phillies would ultimately tie it in the bottom of the 7th, only to lose 6-3 in 11; for those deeply wondering, the heat and the return of the loud, obnoxious drunks who were only there to, well, drink, caused us to leave after the 7th inning). To make this whole thing worse, instead of pulling him, Charlie Manuel let Cole Hamels lead off the bottom of the 6th inning. Words can't describe how stupid a managerial decision that was, even if it meant turning to a lousy bullpen. At least they would have pitched the 7th not having thrown 100 pitches in record heat.

Now calling for Charlie Manuel to be fired would be a hopeless call of futility. This is MLB, where managers are not often fired. He won a World Series in 2008. A change is very unlikely in the near future. But I will say this, if Charlie does not get a clue in how to deal with his starting pitchers, and if Ruben Amaro does not get a clue that the real problem with this Phillies team is the bullpen, then I will guarantee you that the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies will not make the playoffs.