Much like in other sports, there is no known or quantifiable “clutch” skill in winning “close” football games, with close in this instance being defined as games where the final point separation is 7 points or less. In general, any given team can be expected to win about half of these games. The Eagles have had 4 games this season where the final point separation has been 7 points or less. They are 1-4 in those games. On the other side of the coin, the Giants are 4-0 in those games.
The 2011 Philadelphia Eagles are a good football team that have been unbelievably unlucky. Vegas still loves the Eagles. The Eagles are tied for last in the NFC East despite having the best point differential in that division.
Vegas still loves the Eagles. They were 9-point favorites last night and the line for next week's game against Arizona opened with the Eagles as 14-point favorites.
There is hope for the Eagles. They have an easy schedule ahead, the Giants have a brutal schedule ahead. The Eagles meet the Giants one more time. The bad news is the Cowboys also have an easy schedule. And the Cowboys carry a 2-3 record in games where the point differential is 7-points or less. The good news is the Eagles also face the Cowboys one more time.
Is there enough time for the luck to even itself out and the Eagles to win the NFC East? I think it is doubtful at this point just because of what little time there is left and the leaps the Eagles will have to make both in the standings and in terms of luck, but the Eagles true talent level is not that of a 3-5 team, rather more likely a 4-4 team or a 5-3 team, which given the overall weakness of the NFC East this year, is just frustrating.
One last point before I go back to preparing preparing psychology presentations, creating Revolutionary War lessons, and reading colonial newspapers. Fire Reid? Absolutely, definitely not. Fire Juan Castillo? Let's wait to the end of the year to have this discussion.
Since when does Reid become completely exonerated from this Castillo mess? He has so much control over his own coaching staff that this might be his worst hiring yet, and he hasn't made many bad ones.
ReplyDeleteThe Eagles aren't "unlucky", they're underachieving. As much as the offense lights up the yards totals, they only scored 17 against Chicago, 16 against NY Giants, 3 in the 2nd half against San Francisco, and were getting blown out by notorious slow-starters Buffalo in the 1st half.
Unlucky is when Maclin fumbles against San Fran. Fine. Unlucky is the Eagles/Falcons game. Pretty much everything else has absolutely been Philly's for the taking and they're not finishing the job.
Philly is not "done" but it's hard to imagine this team winning 7 of 8 (including the other Giants game, Patriots, and Cowboys) to win the division. If they don't win the division then they aren't going to the playoffs because New Orleans, Atlanta and Chicago will probably be fighting for the 6th seed and they all have better record than the Eagles by at least 2 games.
Reid has done too much good to take the fall for one bad coaching hire.
ReplyDeleteThe Eagles scored 24 against Chicago....
I am not arguing that the Eagles should be 8-0, just not 5-3. To say the Eagles could/should be 4-4 or 5-3 is not that much of a stretch.
The lone saving grace for the Eagles at the moment is their schedule. Relatively easy in comparison to the Giants though it is comparable to that of the Cowboys.