So You Are A Phillies Fan And You Don't Know Who To Root For On Sunday.....

Tomorrow is going to be an exciting day in sports. There could be some strange bedfellows, awkward celebrations, and utter heartbreak for a baseball team who could possibly lose out on the playoffs on the 163rd day, after holding a massive lead in the division 2 months ago. Before I go into about what Phillies fans should be hoping for, here is a list of the scenarios based on the results of tomorrow's games. The Phillies/Braves game starts at 1:35 whereas the Padres/Giants game does not get underway until 4:05.

1). Phillies win, Giants win: Giants win NL West, Padres travel to Atlanta to play Braves in a wildcard tie-breaker on Monday.
2). Phillies win, Padres win: Padres win NL West, Giants win wildcard, Braves are eliminated.
3). Braves win, Giants win: Giants win NL West, Braves win wildcard, Padres are eliminated.
4). Braves win, Padres win: 3-way tie. Giants and Padres will travel to San Diego for NL West tiebreaker game on Monday, the loser of the NL West tiebreaker will travel to Atlanta to play the Braves in a wildcard tiebreaker on Tuesday.

Now who the Phillies play on Wednesday and what team I will be inches away from at Citizens Bank Park on Friday is not yet determined. Using the same numbers for the scenarios, here is what each of them would result in for the Phillies in terms of their NLDS opponent.

1). Phillies opponent will be based on the tiebreaker results. If the Padres win, the Phillies will play the Padres. If the Braves win, the Phillies will play the Reds, who are starting Edinson Volquez in Game 1.
2). Phillies will play the Giants and a rested Tim Lincecum will be pitching Game 1.
3). Phillies will play the Padres..
4). Phillies opponent will be based on the tiebreaker results. If Giants win/Padres win, Phillies will play the Padres. If Giants win/Braves win, Phillies will play the Reds. If Padres win/Giants win, Phillies will play the Giants. If Padres win/Braves win, Phillies will play the Reds.

As hard as it is to believe, the worst case scenario would be the scenario where the Phillies win and the Padres win, the same result those who have enjoyed the schadenfreude have rooted for the past couple of days. As mentioned above, the Phillies would face a rested Tim Lincecum in Game 1, who would also be able to pitch in Game 4, if necessary, at AT&T Park. And while anything can happen in the playoffs and anyone can beat anyone on any day, this is as close to a disaster as you could possibly imagine for the Phillies. But the counter to that is the LDS series are mathematically speaking the most luck driven series of the playoffs because it is only best-of-5 instead of best-of-7. In other words, it can better to play the toughest opponent in the shorter series, where luck can play a bigger factor.

Perhaps the best scenario for the Phillies would be a scenario where the Braves win. Of course, its counterpart would be having the Padres win and us having a 3-way tiebreaker. And while this does involve the chance of playing the Giants, it would be without Lincecum starting Game 1. The Giants being in a tiebreaker means Tim Lincecum pitches in said tiebreaker. While that certainly gives the Giants a leg up in that game, it leaves them bare and exposed in the NLDS. But because I can't in good faith root for the Braves to beat the Phillies, I'll settle for the Phillies winning and the Giants winning, resulting in a Padres/Braves tiebreaker where the Phillies would either play the Padres or the Reds.

Any scenario where the Phillies play the Reds is fine with me, same with any scenario where the Phillies play the Padres. I am well aware that nobody is a guaranteed victory and I will not be celebrating an NLCS berth before this Wednesday, but I will certainly feel like the Phillies chances to advance will be higher by avoiding a series where Tim Lincecum pitches on Wednesday after a week of rest and in Game 4 in San Francisco on normal rest, even with the prospect of luck, because the Giants could very easily lose out and the Phillies can avoid their strongest adversary this year all together.