Monday, March 28, 2011

Well This Whole First Four Idea Has Made Quite The Impact

In 2006, George Mason, an 11-seed, defeated UConn, a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four. Since then, it has become one of the most famous upsets in recent NCAA Tournament history. For the past five years everyone has asked "who is the next George Mason?" heading into the NCAA Tournament. To wit, George Mason has always answered that question with "We're the next George Mason!" though they have yet to advance to the Sweet 16 since 2006.

Move over, George Mason. What 11-seeded Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) did today is even more improbable than the George Mason win. Consider two things. a). George Mason did it in a 65-team field. Granted outside of the addition of 3 extra play-in games, the tournament format has not changed, but when you consider that VCU was a First Four team and was the 66th team into the field, it becomes quite significant. Had the field not expanded, VCU would not be where they are today. b). George Mason played that Elite 8 game against UConn in their own backyard at Verizon Center in Washington D.C. Not only did Virginia Commonwealth venture outside their backyard to play this game, they played Kansas in San Antonio, the heart of Big XII country where all but one or two sections in the Alamodome consisted of Kansas fans. George Mason had a virtual home game. VCU had a virtual road game. George Mason's game may be more memorable in the long-term because it was first and had a dramatic overtime finish, but make no mistake about it, in terms of impressiveness, what VCU did today is greater than what George Mason did.

VCU will now meet Butler in the Final Four in what I guess you can call the Mid Major Championship. The winner will go to the national championship game where they will face Kentucky or Connecticut in the National Championship game. The winner of VCU/Butler will be the highest (or lowest, depending on how you look at it) seeded team in the national championship since 8-seeded Villanova in 1985. I think we all remember how that one turned out.

No one saw this coming. Hell, the majority of people saw this as a year when chalk would hold strong. So much for that. Add the 4 seeds together (3+4+8+11) and it's the highest ever. Now when VCU was first selected into the NCAA Tournament, there was a lot of outrage among ESPN analysts among others about how VCU should not be in the tournament. I was not one of them, but the fact that VCU made the Final Four does not make them wrong. They were comparing VCU's regular season resume with the resume of Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, Alabama's, and the like. Looking at things after the fact does not change things before the fact when all arguments were based on before the fact. I even recall Jay Bilas saying on Selection Sunday that even if VCU made a run, that would not change his argument. He did decide to eat crow on Twitter, but that should not change the initial argument. If you wanted to, you could make the argument that Virginia Tech should have gotten into the tournament over VCU just as easily today as you could two weeks ago. I always liked VCU more than most, so it is never an argument I made (considering other teams had plenty of blemishes as well), but people will point and laugh at all the ESPN talking heads for their Selection Sunday rants when in reality, nothing about what they said has changed. VCU beating Southern California, Purdue, Florida State, and Kansas, has impressive as it was, still does not change things in terms of teams' regular season resumes, which is what Selection Sunday is based off of.

How has VCU made the run? While not the whole answer, but a large part of it is they are making 3-pointers at a ridiculous rate, well above their season average. An absolutely incredible run for the Rams, who must surely hope can continue as they make the trip to Houston, Texas for Saturday's Final Four showdown with Butler.

Lastly, I recommend checking out Mid Majority's post on Richmond, Virginia that was published before the Sweet 16. It is a great read, and the fact that VCU advanced to the Final Four only makes it greater.

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