I interupt my working on a research prospectus to announce 2 things:
1). I'VE GOT MY INTERNET BACK!
2). We may be days, or even hours away from one of the most blockbuster trades in recent MLB history.
This weekend, Ken Rosenthal wrote of a crazy hunch based on no factual information (no, really, he was hypothesizing based off of nothing) that the Phillies might somehow involve Cliff Lee in a trade for Halladay. At the time, I thought that Ken Rosenthal was on some nasty drugs or someone wanted 1500 words in an hour and Kenny had nothing to write.
But, Kenny Rosenthal might have been on to something. Jim Salisbury issued this stunning report today that says the Phillies would open to trading Lee to another team (Seattle's said to be interested) for prospects they can ship to Toronto for Roy Halladay, who is currently located in the City of Brotherly Love where talks of an extension are already occuring.
So here it goes. The $10,000,000 question that will make Ruben Amaro, Jr. a genius or run him out of this town faster than J.D. Drew was. Assuming the Phillies can sign Doc Halladay to the extension, do you still pull the trigger on the trade if it means that Clifton Phifer lee will not be a Phillie next year?
Phillies have already said they won't trade Hamels, so this is it. If the Phillies can do it without trading Lee, I'll be running to the store buying new underwear, but is Halladay and the extension worth giving up 1-year of Lee?
The question will soon be answered. If you want to beat the Yankees, you have to play the game. The dice are now squarely in the hands of Ruben Amaro, Jr.
Update: Amaro did it! Roy Halladay is a Phillie! It's a 3-team deal. The 3rd team is Seattle. It was originally reported that they got Lee but that has been changed to likely. I'll keep you posted. But the bottom line is this, after 6 months, it can finally be said, ROY HALLADAY IS A PHILADELPHIA PHILLIE!!!!!!!!!!
Update: If Jim Salisbury is right and if Kyle Drabek is indeed part of this deal, you can kiss the Phillies future goodbye. Please be wrong, Salisbury. Isn't the whole idea of trading Lee to begin with to lock up a Cy Young pitcher long term while preserving the farm?
Update 3: Is it just me or is Dash Treyhorn of The Fightins correct in that this is just the trade that Toronto and Ricciardi wanted back in January for Halladay only with an extra side dish of a straight up Cliff Lee for Seattle prospects trade including Phillippe Aumont (which will hopefully make up for the loss of Drabek). Crazy crazy stuff.
Why would you want Halladay over Lee? Lee is younger, left-handed, and is actually proven in playoff games. This trade makes no sense.
ReplyDeleteLee >>>> Halladay
It's not exactly that I want Lee over Halladay, it's that I and the Phillies want a stud, Cy Young potential pitcher for more than just 1 more season. Lee wants to test the free agent market (that will likely mean that he gets paid $200 million to wear black pinstripes in the Bronx) after 2010 and preliminary reports have stated that he would not sign if the Phillies for a "discount". You can get Halladay and lock him up now so why not do it, even if it must cost you Lee?
ReplyDeleteHalladay is only 1-year older than Lee and Lee made his playoff debut 2 and a half months ago. Who is to say Halladay can't be as dominant in his 1st playoff outing?
did I miss the meeting where it was decided that Kyle Drabek is the next Walter Johnson? why wouldn't you want to give this guy up? The Phillies needed a righty starter and they got one of the 3 best in the game.
ReplyDelete@ kt1000: Drabek has been deemed untouchable for the longest time and has the potential to emerge as one of the top pitchers in baseball. From what I've heard, this guy is sick. At the same time, though, he is just a prospect who has never stepped foot on a major league mound.
ReplyDeleteI just read something Dan Levy wrote for The Sporting Blog and I think this sums everything up the best:
"With Halladay in the National League, the Phillies have guaranteed themselves a run at the World Series for the next four seasons. Are the Phillies giving up too much to get him? Probably. But they likely can't afford not to. "
There's little doubt in my mind that Lee would walk after next year as he wants more $$ and more years than the Phillies would want to give him. It's how they are. If Lee leaves and you don't get anything in return (i.e. no Halladay), the team is screwed back to mediocrity for years to come as there are several free agents next year including Victorino & Werth (way too early prediction: Phils re-sign Werth, let Victorino go and replace him with prospect Domonic Brown) I wanted to see Drabek with the Phils more than anybody, but he is just a prospect who has never played in an MLB game.
Maybe it's my bias as an Orioles fan coming out but I'm so tired of hearing about prospects who are supposed to be awesome but end up being garbage(Sidney Ponson,Daniel Cabrera, Tim Raines Jr.,Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos,Geronimo Gil, etc.)that anytime you have to trade 1 or 2 to get a perennial all star you do it. I think it's a great trade for the Phillies. Maybe the question should be are the Phils getting enough for Lee? From what I read, Mariners fans are ready to have a parade over that trade.
ReplyDelete@ kt1000: Exactly. And yes, I was checking out some Mariners blogs last night to see how they viewed the trade as frankly (are they upset about the prospects that they lost, etc.), I don't know shit about the Mariners outside of Griffey and Ichiro, let alone their farm system, and you're right, they were ready to throw a party (and possibly invite one of our trollers).
ReplyDeleteI was reading about Aumont a bit and he is a 6'7" gut that is projected right now to be a top-notch closer (I've also read top of the rotation starter). Supposedly he made a few relief appearances and while he has a lot of power, it seems like control will be a bit of an issue with him. If he gets that right, he can be dangerous.
They are saying Gillies could become one of the fastest players in the league, but he needs to work on making contact with the ball.
It's an interesting trade and the more I think about it, the more that I think this was the right move. That of course, is going on the assumption that Rube exhausted all of his options of bringing Halladay over without dumping Lee, and I am sure that he did. You gotta do what you gotta do.
And I am of the belief that Halladay is the better pitcher. He's ERA is better and people forget that coming into the post-season, Cliff Lee was having a very tough run of it. He started dominant, slumped in September, and picked it back up for the post-season. And when Lee struggled, he Chien-Ming Wang struggled. There was a stretch of 2 or 3 games where it felt like he could not get his head out of his ass.