More Thoughts On The Halladay Trade

First of all, as the deal stands now....

Phillies get: Roy Halladay, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and $6 million.

Blue Jays get: Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, Michael Taylor (who they will trade to Oakland for Brett Wallace)

Mariners get: Cliff Lee

I know there are people that like this trade. And I know there are others that want Ruben Amaro, Jr. to go find the nearest hole, crawl in it, and stay their for the rest of his life. That's the way things are going to be when you make a trade like that.

However, from a baseball perspective, this was the right move. You can jump at me and say that Drabek took things one step too far, but Drabek is just a prospect. While we in Philly may think that he is the future Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay, there are people out there who see him no more as a #2 or a #3 starter on a team. Instead of looking at what we lost, let's look at what we got in return.

We've got arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Harry Leroy Halladay III. Yes, he is better than Cliff Lee. His wins and losses are better than Lee's and his ERA is better than Lee's all despite the fact that Lee has played on teams that went to the World Series.

People will see the World Series and say that OMFG CLIFF LEE IS DA BESTEST EVER! No. No, he is not. He is a good pitcher, yes, and Seattle made out damn good all things considered, but let us remember Cliff Lee in 2007. And let us remember Cliff Lee in September of 2009. Remember coming into the postseason there were actually questions about Cliff Lee. In September he stunk. He was not the same pitcher that the Phillies acquired in July nor was he the same pitcher that pitched brillantly in the post season. The bottom line is Lee can be inconsistent. Now that's not to say that Halladay does not have slumps as well, but when Lee slumped, good grief, it was like watching Chien Ming Wang earlier in the year. Just dreadful dreadful stuff was happening to him.

And there is another argument that the Stupid Move Phillies club has by saying that Halladay has never pitched in the post-season before. And granted, Lee proved himself this year, but this was the first year that he actually pitched in the post-season. He was injured when Cleveland made their post-season run. So to say that Halladay has never pitched a post-season game before is nonsense when you consider the fact that Lee had not pitched in the post-season either prior to 2 months ago. Where were those question marks on Cliff Lee heading into the post-season last year. There were question marks about his performance in September, sure, but did anyone question his lack of post-season experience when he was on a staff with Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez, and Joe Blanton, all of whom had not only pitched in the post-season before but all own World Series rings (and Hamels was the 2008 World Series MVP)? Where were the questions then? And not only that, but in his first post-season start when he went up Ubaldo Jimenez, who not only pitched in the post-season before, but had beaten the Phillies before in the post-season? In other words, a pitcher quite comfortable with the position he was in versus a pitcher who had never pitched a post-season game before? My point is this. No one questioned Lee's post-season experience coming into the 2009 playoffs, why are we questioning Halladay's now? For all we know, Doc could throw 3 post-season no-hitters.

And lastly, the prospects. The Phillies may have given up the once untouchable Drabek, but they have gotten 6'7" Phillippe Aumont in return. And while he did see some action out of the Mariners pen last year, he struggled somewhat with control, but whenever you have a 6'7" guy with power, that is going to catch an eye and there is definite potential. And another prospect that the Phillies will end up getting, Tyson Gillies, may have the potential to be the fastest guy in baseball. So while the Phillies are giving up a farm for Halladay, they are getting a farm right back, so in the end, when you trade prospects for prospects, is just that. You wins and who loses will be judged 5-years from now, not today. You can't judge this based on today. You can only judge whether or not right now this was a smart move.

And all in all, I think it was a smart trade for the Phillies as they are on a strict budget and thanks to the "aw shucks, we love you" $7 million contract they gave to Moyer after winning the World Series with him, financially, this was the only thing they could do to lock up a Cy Young winning pitcher long-term as that Moyer contract pretty much made it impossible for the Phils to have both Halladay and Lee for 1-year. Because let's face it, Cliff Lee was going to want CC Sabathia money and a long 5-6 year deal and the Phillies just don't roll like that. They don't dish out that kind of money nor do they sign pitchers for that long. There is without a doubt that Cliff Lee would walk and take the money instead of coming to Philly for a discount.

If the Phillies did not trade for Halladay, then they would be screwed in 2011 when they lose a lot of key players, and that will in turn send them into a tailspin of mediocrity that categorized the early 2000s. Now with Halladay, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Phillies will be perennial contenders for the NL pennant for the next 4 (possibly 5 years) and at the end of the day, isn't that the ultimate goal?

I'll end by summing up a quote of Dan Levy's in The Sporting Blog this morning, the Phillies may have paid a high price, arguably too much for Halladay, but can they afford to move forward into the future as a World Series contender without making this move? The answer: No.