Is The Flyers Current Run Just Plain Luck?

For multiple reasons, I am not a huge stat person. For starters, I am not great at math and numbers. And secondly, a lot of stat geeks are obnoxious pricks who enjoy breathing down the noses and berating those who don't use who don't buy into their analysis, like the person who wrote this demeaning article. At the same time, though, when broken down and explained well, I can appreciate, understand, and enjoy a good point backed up by statistics. Take for instance this take on the Flyers by the blog, Brodeur Is A Fraud.

Here are the best and worst 14-game save percentage streaks during the 2009-10 regular season for each of remaining final four teams:

Philadelphia: .936 and .870
Montreal: .943 and .882
Chicago: .937 and .874
San Jose: .944 and .887

And the same thing for seven game series:

Philadelphia: .946 and .857
Montreal: .952 and .871
Chicago: .955 and .844
San Jose: .967 and .853

The similarity in range illustrates again how the margins are very small in goaltending. Over a short sample the skill element of goaltending can be completely lost in the noise of whether the opposing shooters are missing, the puck is hitting him through screens and traffic, or whether he happens to be in peak form or not. Most teams will have at least one streak of seven games or more where their team save percentage is .940 or better, yet analysts are repeatedly stunned when some lesser goalie hits that mark or a star goalie sees his numbers dive to sub-.900 levels over the course of a playoff series.

With the Canadiens' shooting and save percentages taking a clobbering in back-to-back shutout losses to the Flyers, I think we have a new leader in the clubhouse for the luckiest team in the playoffs. With an 11.8% shooting percentage and a .933 save percentage Philadelphia is absolutely rocking the percentages. Take a look at the PDO numbers (shooting percentage plus save percentage) for the teams that are left:

Philadelphia: 105.1
Chicago: 102.2
Montreal: 101.2
San Jose: 98.5

The only way the Flyers can likely compete with the Western champ is if the pucks keep going in and staying out at ridiculous rates. If Michael Leighton can keep his even-strength save percentage in the .980 range then that should probably do it, but unfortunately the winds of chance tend to be fickle, as the Canadiens are finding out. We don't know how the bounces are going to shake out for the rest of the playoffs, but it's probably fair to say that barring some ridiculous streak occurring everything looks lined up for the end of a long Cup drought in Chicago.

At the same token, though, you do have to consider why these numbers are the way they are and the fact that some goalies take awhile to develop into solid NHL goaltenders. Heck, Dominik Hasek was a late-bloomer. Something else you have to consider is what shots the goalie is seeing. The Flyers defense has done an excellent job at preventing screens in front of Leighton and forcing shots that Michael Leighton is able to see and follow all the way through. In part because of his size, Michael Leighton is extremely good at making saves on the initial shot. He struggles a bit with rebounds and this is where it would be beneficial for Montreal (or any team that plays Leighton) to get in front of the net and try to pick up the rebounds (similar to what the Flyers are doing to Halak). But when the Flyers defense and Montreal's ineptitude on offense do not allow second chance shots, that will greatly eliminate the amount of goals against and increase save percentage, especially because Michael Leighton is such a big body and excels at first-shot saves.

So while I would hesitate to call the whole thing luck, it will be interesting to see what happens if Leighton lets in a goal or 2 in Game 2 and how him and the Flyers can respond. One thing is for sure, in this post-season, the Flyers have been ridiculously successful at scoring goals and keeping the puck out of their own net, especially with Leighton in goal. Will it keep up for Game 3, or will the Habs finally solve the Flyers defense? And can the Flyers improve their 5-on-5 play and continue to get quality chances on Halak? Game 3 is tonight.