(Originally posted at Broad Street Hockey)
There has been a lot of talk in the past day or so about Montreal's come from behind nature and how they are 5-0 in elimination games this post-season, as there should be. This is a very resilient Habs team that has not been easy to put away. Something that I wanted to investigate was whether or not there were any trends in those elimination games. Has there been a consistent factor like an early goal or 2 that gave them momentum and/or confidence in each game? Seeing as I do not have these full games available to watch (and even if I did, I do not have the time to watch 5 full hockey games and analyze them), the best I can do is watch the highlights video supplied by NHL.com. While I watched the whole highlight package, I paid special attention to the first and second goals, as when it comes to grabbing momentum early in the game, nothing is more important. Yes, I am aware that I could have found all this out by just looking at the box score, but that would not given me the visual imagery I wanted when conducting my analysis. Videos are included below followed by a summary of events, for those that do not have the time to watch them.
Game 5 @ Washington
1:30 into the opening frame, Mike Cammalleri scores a quick opening goal to give the Habs a 1-0 lead. Varlamov never saw it. The goal noticeably took the crowd at Verizon Center. Still in the 1st half of the opening frame, Travis Moen scores to make it 2-0 Montreal, giving the Habs confidence and a bit of a cushion to work with in their first elimination game of the 2010 playoffs. Some great saves by Halak followed and the comeback was noticeably on. The Capitals would get one back in the second, but several great Halak saves would ensure that the Caps get no more. Montreal wins 2-1. GWG = 2nd goal of the game.
Game 6 vs. Washington
Jaroslav Halak made some big saves early as the Habs would once again get on the scoreboard first. Once again it is in the 1st 10 minutes of the game and once again it is Mike Cammalleri scoring the goal. The 2nd goal of this game is also scored by Cammalleri and is also in the 1st 10 minutes of the game. This goal was a real softie on the part of Varlamov, but a goal is a goal is a goal, and a 2-0 Habs lead in Bell Centre in the 1st 10 minutes of the game, had that crowd rocking. Maxim Lapierre would add a goal in the 3rd to cement the game, though Eric Fehr would tally on with less than 5 minutes left. The Habs responded to that with a Plekanec empty netter. Words can't describe how well Jaroslav Halak played in this game. Habs win 4-1. GWG = 2nd goal of the game.
Game 7 @ Washington
No goals were scored in the 1st 10 minutes of the 1st period, but Marc-Andre Bergeron found the back of the net in the last minute of the 1st period to give the Habs a lead they would ultimately never relinquish. After another incredible performance by Halak, Dominic Moore scores with 3:36 left in the game. A little over a minute later, Brooks Laich scored to make it a 1-goal game, but the Caps would be unable to get an equalizer, thanks to the Montreal defense and Jaroslav Halak. The Canadiens win Game 7 2-1. GWG = 2nd goal of the game.
Game 6 vs. Pittsburgh
Mike Cammalleri scores the opening goal only 1:13 into the game to give the Habs the early lead. The Habs could not get out of the 1st 10 minutes of the game though with the lead as Sidney Crosby evened the ledger with 12:38 left in the first. Kris Letang would then give Pittsburgh a 2-1 lead in the 2nd period, forcing Montreal to face a deficit for the first time in an elimination game. But they would only face that deficit for a short time as Mike Cammalleri evened the game back at 2 up only 5 minutes after Letang put Pittsburgh in front. Still in the 2nd period and just a few minutes after Cammalleri's goal, Spacek puts Montreal ahead 3-2 with a rocket from near the blue line. Then in the 3rd period, Maxim Lapierre would put the game away with a goal to make it 4-2 and send the Montreal crowd "OLEing". Sergei Gonchar would make it interesting with a goal with 1:24 left in the game, but that would not be enough. Habs win it 4-3. GWG = 5th goal of the game.
Game 7 @ Pittsburgh
Montreal does not waste any time, thanks to PK Subban scoring in the very 1st minute of this game. Still in the 1st period, though past the halfway point of it, Moore scores to put the Habs up 2-0. In the 2nd period, Cammalleri made it 3-0 then Travis Moen made it 4-0 thanks to Sergei Gonchar's somewhat questionable defense. Pittsburgh would get 2 back in the 2nd thanks to Kunitz and Staal, but the momentum from them would be erased by a 3rd period goal by Brian Gionta to clinch the game and the series for the Montreal Canadiens. Habs win 5-2. GWG = 3rd goal of the game.
Conclusion
In all 5 elimination games, the Montreal Canadiens scored the 1st goal of the game. All of them were in the 1st period, 4 of the 5 of them were in the 1st 10 minutes of the game, and perhaps most stunningly of all, 3 of the 5 were scored in the 1st 2 minutes of the game!. That being said, none of those goals proved to be game-winners. We brought this up before Game 7 of the Flyers-Bruins series, but for all the stress on the importance of the 1st goal, the 2nd goal of the game has once again proved to be even more important as thrice the 2nd goal of the game was also the game-winner for Montreal. Conversely though, the Habs got the 2nd goal in only 4 of the 5 games, so despite it being a game-winner 3 times, it was scored by the other team once. Montreal has scored more than 1 goal in all of its elimination games. Jaroslav Halak has given up at least 1 goal in all of Montreal's elimination games. In all 5 elimination games combined, Montreal has trailed for a grand total of 5 minutes and 24 seconds.
So what are the implications of all this to the Flyers? The answer is simple: Weather the early storm. If the past 5 games tell us anything, Montreal will come out early and try to generate chances right off the bat and get a real early goal. And yes, I do realize the Flyers are a different team with a much different style of play then Pittsburgh and Washington, but Montreal's objective will still be the same. In their past games, the Habs have benefited from the momentum and the confidence that comes with getting the early goal. Even though none of them have been game-winners, they have all been tone-setters. Whether it be taking the crowd out of the game in Washington and Pittsburgh, or jacking them up even more in Montreal, the 1st goal has dictated the game, and ultimately who wins it. It will be up to the Flyers to play defense and make sure that does not happen. From here on out in this series, the longer the game remains scoreless, the more it will benefit Philadelphia. And if the Flyers can actually turn the tables and get the first goal themselves, that could go a long way in taking air out of Montreal's steam, especially seeing as it will put them in a situation they are unfamiliar with; trailing in a game that they cannot lose if they want to see another playoff game.
But as we have all seen this post-season, while history can give us patterns and trends, it does not, cannot, and will not determine what happens in the present. That being said, it will be interesting to see if these patterns play themselves out in Game 5 and any other potential game that may be played in this Eastern Conference Final.
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